New York Magazine, September 15, 2008
By James J. Cramer, Co-Founder- TheStreet.com
For more than a year, I’ve been a huge bear on housing. From the moment the credit-crisis storm began to form, I’ve been shouting in my usual unhinged way about just how bad the devastation would be, and carrying on about how anyone who bought a home in this environment would lose money immediately. At various points along the way, my house-hating judgment has been questioned, but I’d say I’ve been vindicated by the relentless decline in home values we’ve seen, the worst since the Great Depression. Even here, in our so-called real-estate-superstar city, prices may not have fallen, but the rate of acceleration has started to soften.
These days, I don’t know a soul who hasn’t jumped on the real-estate-is-an-awful-investment bandwagon. When I interview the once-rabid bulls on housing—those who make their livelihood building and selling homes, like Bob Toll, the CEO of the best home builder in America, Toll Brothers—I get grim predictions of nary a turn in sight. When I pressed Toll recently as to whether he sees any light at the end of the tunnel, he quickly answered yes: “The light of an oncoming train!”
Well, I now have another contrarian point of view to proffer: The converted bears, as well as the panicked sellers desperate to bail out and nervous buyers afraid to jump in, will be dead wrong nine months from now, when housing prices bottom. In fact, I’ll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround. It will begin on June 30, 2009.
Let me give you ten reasons why everyone who now thinks there’s no end in sight to weakening home prices will look like a fool in nine months and will miss the best opportunity to buy since the 1989–1991 real-estate crash.
1. Two years ago, we were building twice as many homes as in 2008, and the decline in new-home building is now accelerating. At this pace, we could see new-home construction fall an additional 25 percent, back to levels last seen when we had 60 million fewer people living in this country. By next June we won’t be building enough homes to accommodate demand, and the gap between supply and demand won’t be made up by unsold inventory.
2. The housing bears seem to forget that Congress passed a bill authorizing $300 billion in FHA loans, which give troubled homeowners a fighting chance to pay their mortgages or get current on them. By nine months from now, the FHA will have taken millions in terrible floating-rate loans with high interest rates and turned them into 30-year mortgages with much lower rates. That’s going to reduce the number of foreclosed homes, and the supply of available homes, dramatically.
3. Bargains! Prices have already come down to the point where there are real values, and by June of next year, I believe real-estate prices will have fallen 25 percent nationwide from their previous highs, with some of the hardest-hit areas of the country down as much as 50 percent. At those price levels, homes will seem irresistible to the many millions of potential buyers who have stayed on the sidelines.
4. The last holdout area, New York, is nearing its bottom. The Wall Street brokerage houses will let employees know their bonus situations—or lack thereof—next month. Look for a further softening of prices in the city and even more so in the Hamptons, as hiring vanishes and Wall Street payrolls contract drastically. When the last areas fall, the bottoming process begins in earnest. By next June, Wall Street, and its power to drive down home prices, won’t hurt us anymore.
5. Right now, mortgages are expensive relative to their historical benchmark, the 30-year Treasury note. By next summer, I believe that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be nationalized to shore up their flimsy capital foundations. Once the loans that Fannie and Freddie repackaged are explicitly guaranteed by the government, they’ll become the world’s best investments, as they’ll offer much higher yields than Treasury notes, with no more risk. That will cause a steep decline in mortgage rates, making it easier to borrow money and buy a home.
6. Come June, the bulk of the reckless 2-and-28 loans—the ones with the low teaser rates for the first two years that sucked people in and then reset at much higher rates, dragging people under—will have moved through the system. These loans have been the biggest source of foreclosed property, so the rate of foreclosures should decline sharply once those loans are off the books, tightening supply and soothing anxious buyers’ nerves.
7. We may not think of ourselves this way, but we are still a growing nation: Four million babies are born each year in this country, vastly exceeding the nation’s death rate. Household formation, meanwhile, has held steady at about 800,000 a year. Families have been camped in their apartments or crowding in with their in-laws for some time now. That pent-up demand is bound to find expression and put upward pressure on prices, as credit again becomes easier to get.
8. Immigration. It doesn’t matter who gets elected, John McCain or Barack Obama. Both are much more immigrant-friendly than George Bush. Before W., we could reliably anticipate about 1 million illegal immigrants arriving each year, but that number’s gotten a big haircut, in part explaining why Florida, Arizona, and California have been particularly hard hit by excess home inventory. Look for that to change, triggering an influx of new immigrants, and home buyers, starting on Inauguration Day and building as we head into mid-2009.
9. The biggest problem areas are now restricted to those three states—Florida, Arizona, and California. The rest of the country has begun to stabilize or is deteriorating at a slower pace than six months ago. The most problematic markets have been cordoned off, limiting the collateral damage.
10. Finally, the absolute worst areas, those with the highest foreclosures, like Bradenton, Florida, and the Central Valley of California, bottomed this summer. The first to fall are the first to return. If they’re headed upward, the rest of the country will follow.
You can see these ten reasons playing out in the stock market, as the stocks of the major home builders—Toll, Centex, KB Homes, D.R. Horton, and Pulte Homes—flattened out in July and have been climbing since. These stocks peaked and started dropping nine months before the housing market began its tumble. If they predicted the top nine months before it happened, why shouldn’t we believe they’re forecasting the bottom nine months from now? The big home builders’ stock prices have already made major moves north, but I expect more upside from KB Home and Centex, as they still have lots of unsold homes in inventory and decent enough balance sheets to hold out until we reach the bottom. For those who want to roll the dice, I suggest buying Lennar, the home builder that pulled its horns in last, took a beating, and could be poised for a strong recovery. Toll’s already risen too much to recommend, and I’d steer clear of Hovnanian, which I think is still in too much trouble to touch right now.
Of all the areas I expect to boom next June, New York looks to be the most attractive because buyers from overseas will flock to it—even more than they already have. Just as the dollar appears to have bottomed, European real estate is starting to collapse. Foreigners will flee to this market as a safe haven, one that has already experienced the decline that they are just beginning to see. If you’re a seller, hold tight if you possibly can. You’re almost—almost—through the worst of the downslide. If you’re a buyer, use the time between now and next June to scout in which neighborhood you might want to buy. On June 29, call your broker.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Ripe for The Picking....
CNBC “Finding Housing Markets Basement” This is a 4 minute segment, Naples is mentioned about 3:15 minutes into the article (you can actually slide the play bar to skip ahead)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=859022956
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=859022956
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Naples Ray of Sunshine in Housing Market
NAPLES — In one economist’s eyes, the Naples real estate market is now seen as “slightly undervalued.”
In an interview with CNBC Wednesday night, Richard Dekaser, a senior vice president and chief economist at National City Corp., singled out Naples in talking about the “first rays of sunshine on a possible end to the housing crisis.”
“Three years ago, the poster child for excess valuation in America was Naples, Florida,” he said.
Not anymore. Through the second quarter of this year, prices have dropped 33 percent, he said, leading him to judge the market as “slightly undervalued.” That means home prices are actually lower than where they should be.
“Now it could become even more undervalued and I suspect it will,” he said in the interview. “But I think we have to appreciate the adjustment that has already occurred.”
He said prices could hit bottom within six months as foreclosure rates begin to fall.
“I don’t want to overstate the case,” he said. “The housing bust is not over. But we are in a later stage of stabilization,” he said.
Dekaser is the same analyst who labeled Naples the most overpriced market in the U.S. a few years ago.
At the end of the first quarter of 2006, National City judged that with a median home price of $383,000, prices were more than double what they should be in Naples.
Prices continue to fall.
In August, the median home price — the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less — dropped to $238,000 in the Naples area. That was down from $375,000 a year ago, according to a monthly report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors.
For seven straight months, sales have picked up.
It was nice to see Naples shown in a positive light in the media, especially with so much bad news going on in the banking and financial markets, said Brett Brown, president-elect for the Naples Area Board of Realtors.
He said if you took out the under-$300,000 market, where most of the foreclosures and short sales are happening, the median price would have been up 5 percent in August. Short sales are sales made for less than the bank is owed to avoid foreclosure.
Naples was the only market mentioned in the interview with CNBC.
“It shows we haven’t fallen off a cliff,” Brown said. “We are here. Properties are selling.”
In an interview with CNBC Wednesday night, Richard Dekaser, a senior vice president and chief economist at National City Corp., singled out Naples in talking about the “first rays of sunshine on a possible end to the housing crisis.”
“Three years ago, the poster child for excess valuation in America was Naples, Florida,” he said.
Not anymore. Through the second quarter of this year, prices have dropped 33 percent, he said, leading him to judge the market as “slightly undervalued.” That means home prices are actually lower than where they should be.
“Now it could become even more undervalued and I suspect it will,” he said in the interview. “But I think we have to appreciate the adjustment that has already occurred.”
He said prices could hit bottom within six months as foreclosure rates begin to fall.
“I don’t want to overstate the case,” he said. “The housing bust is not over. But we are in a later stage of stabilization,” he said.
Dekaser is the same analyst who labeled Naples the most overpriced market in the U.S. a few years ago.
At the end of the first quarter of 2006, National City judged that with a median home price of $383,000, prices were more than double what they should be in Naples.
Prices continue to fall.
In August, the median home price — the price at which half of the homes sell for more and half for less — dropped to $238,000 in the Naples area. That was down from $375,000 a year ago, according to a monthly report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors.
For seven straight months, sales have picked up.
It was nice to see Naples shown in a positive light in the media, especially with so much bad news going on in the banking and financial markets, said Brett Brown, president-elect for the Naples Area Board of Realtors.
He said if you took out the under-$300,000 market, where most of the foreclosures and short sales are happening, the median price would have been up 5 percent in August. Short sales are sales made for less than the bank is owed to avoid foreclosure.
Naples was the only market mentioned in the interview with CNBC.
“It shows we haven’t fallen off a cliff,” Brown said. “We are here. Properties are selling.”
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Mortgage rates go down, then up again
By Holden Lewis • Bankrate.com
Mortgage shoppers got stuck inside an old-fashioned melodrama in the last week.
In the first act, mortgage rates sank as markets digested the federal government's takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Mortgage shoppers exulted at Uncle Sam's rescue of Fannie and Freddie. Some dared to hope that rates would fall even lower.
The melodrama's second act occurred over a tense weekend: The investment bank Lehman Brothers lay tied up on the railroad tracks. Would Uncle Sam ride to the rescue? No! Lehman was gorily dismembered as Uncle Sam stood by, impassively. The mortgage market enjoyed the spectacle, as rates fell even more.
Weekly national mortgage survey
Results of Bankrate.com's Sept. 17, 2008, weekly national survey of large lenders and the effect on monthly payments for a $165,000 loan:
30-year fixed
15-year fixed
5-year ARM
This week's rate:
6.16%
5.84%
6.07%
Change from last week:
+0.01
+0.03
-0.01
Monthly payment:
$1006.29
$1378.14
$996.70
Change from last week:
+$1.06
+$2.66
-$1.06
"The bald eagle has said, 'We're done bailing anyone out,'" mortgage broker Dan Dowling opined Monday morning. His advice on whether to lock a rate or float: "I think right now, your best ploy is to lock and monitor."
Act III: Tuesday afternoon, Uncle Sam cackled as he denied the Fed rate cut that the villagers desperately wanted. That night, Wall Street and rating agencies fitted insurance giant AIG with a noose. Just as the trapdoor opened, a bullet sliced through the hangman's rope, and AIG landed on its feet. Uncle Sam rode up, rifle in hand. "You belong to me now," he told AIG.
The mortgage market reacted badly to the plot twists of Act III. Fixed-rate mortgages rebounded Wednesday morning and took back the declines of the previous five workdays and then some. And Dowling, president of United Mortgage Capital in Altamonte Springs, Fla., was looking mighty smart for advising clients to lock the day before.
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.16 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.41 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.32 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.66 percent.
The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points, to 5.84 percent, and the 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo, for larger loans, fell 5 basis points, to 7.36 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point, to 6.07 percent.
A thick plot
The performance of mortgage rates in the past week brought generally negative reviews. For one thing, the plot was hard to follow. "I don't know. I stopped trying to figure this out a long time ago," mortgage broker Dan Green, of Mobium Mortgage in Cincinnati, said. Actually, he spends a lot of time trying to figure it out, but lately all has been confusion.
Green's advice: "Stay aware, take advantage of opportunities that present themselves, and be ready to act. When mortgage markets move so quickly, it's because there's a market imbalance. And Wall Street seeks balance, and that's why they're short-lived."
Steve Habetz, owner of Threshold Mortgage, a brokerage in Westport, Conn., said he believes rates will remain low, "to where people say, 'I'm willing to assume the risk of owning a home" that could lose value. He said the other outcome -- higher mortgage rates -- "is far too painful for this nation to endure."
Alan Rosenbaum, president of Guardhill Financial, a mortgage bank in New York City, said he believes the mortgage marketplace is edging close to capitulation, when holders of mortgage debt recognize the true values of their degraded portfolios. "I think that we may realize that we're very close to a bottom," he said. "If we can get banks lending again, I think real estate will come back and the overall economy will come back."
By Holden Lewis • Bankrate.com
Mortgage shoppers got stuck inside an old-fashioned melodrama in the last week.
In the first act, mortgage rates sank as markets digested the federal government's takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Mortgage shoppers exulted at Uncle Sam's rescue of Fannie and Freddie. Some dared to hope that rates would fall even lower.
The melodrama's second act occurred over a tense weekend: The investment bank Lehman Brothers lay tied up on the railroad tracks. Would Uncle Sam ride to the rescue? No! Lehman was gorily dismembered as Uncle Sam stood by, impassively. The mortgage market enjoyed the spectacle, as rates fell even more.
Weekly national mortgage survey
Results of Bankrate.com's Sept. 17, 2008, weekly national survey of large lenders and the effect on monthly payments for a $165,000 loan:
30-year fixed
15-year fixed
5-year ARM
This week's rate:
6.16%
5.84%
6.07%
Change from last week:
+0.01
+0.03
-0.01
Monthly payment:
$1006.29
$1378.14
$996.70
Change from last week:
+$1.06
+$2.66
-$1.06
"The bald eagle has said, 'We're done bailing anyone out,'" mortgage broker Dan Dowling opined Monday morning. His advice on whether to lock a rate or float: "I think right now, your best ploy is to lock and monitor."
Act III: Tuesday afternoon, Uncle Sam cackled as he denied the Fed rate cut that the villagers desperately wanted. That night, Wall Street and rating agencies fitted insurance giant AIG with a noose. Just as the trapdoor opened, a bullet sliced through the hangman's rope, and AIG landed on its feet. Uncle Sam rode up, rifle in hand. "You belong to me now," he told AIG.
The mortgage market reacted badly to the plot twists of Act III. Fixed-rate mortgages rebounded Wednesday morning and took back the declines of the previous five workdays and then some. And Dowling, president of United Mortgage Capital in Altamonte Springs, Fla., was looking mighty smart for advising clients to lock the day before.
The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 1 basis point, to 6.16 percent, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.41 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 6.32 percent; four weeks ago, it was 6.66 percent.
The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 3 basis points, to 5.84 percent, and the 30-year, fixed-rate jumbo, for larger loans, fell 5 basis points, to 7.36 percent. The benchmark 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage fell 1 basis point, to 6.07 percent.
A thick plot
The performance of mortgage rates in the past week brought generally negative reviews. For one thing, the plot was hard to follow. "I don't know. I stopped trying to figure this out a long time ago," mortgage broker Dan Green, of Mobium Mortgage in Cincinnati, said. Actually, he spends a lot of time trying to figure it out, but lately all has been confusion.
Green's advice: "Stay aware, take advantage of opportunities that present themselves, and be ready to act. When mortgage markets move so quickly, it's because there's a market imbalance. And Wall Street seeks balance, and that's why they're short-lived."
Steve Habetz, owner of Threshold Mortgage, a brokerage in Westport, Conn., said he believes rates will remain low, "to where people say, 'I'm willing to assume the risk of owning a home" that could lose value. He said the other outcome -- higher mortgage rates -- "is far too painful for this nation to endure."
Alan Rosenbaum, president of Guardhill Financial, a mortgage bank in New York City, said he believes the mortgage marketplace is edging close to capitulation, when holders of mortgage debt recognize the true values of their degraded portfolios. "I think that we may realize that we're very close to a bottom," he said. "If we can get banks lending again, I think real estate will come back and the overall economy will come back."
Saturday, August 23, 2008
July Market Data!
This report represents the combined Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero market. Numbers may vary among various
GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.
Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted.
CLOSED SALES
• Closed units in July were up 33% over July 2007 and the highest July since July 2005.
• Year-to-date closed units up 10% over same period 2007. Volume down 12%.
• Median sales price year-to-date July is down 17% from July 2007. Average sales price down 19%.
• Year-to-date sales under $500,000 represent 70% of all closed sales and are the only price segment showing
an increase over prior year.
PENDED SALES
• July pended sales were up 65% over July 2007. Naples up 72% and Bonita / Estero up 40%.
• Cumulative pended sales for the first 7 months of 2008 are up 16% over prior year.
• Pended sales over $2 million have exceeded same month, prior year for May, June and July, indicating some
strengthening in this market segment.
LISTINGS
• Number of new listings taken in July is less than 2% greater than July 2007.
• Active listing inventory on August 1, 2008 stands at 13,274 in the Naples, Bonita, Estero combined markets
(6348 condominiums and 6926 single family homes). This represents a 4% decline from August 1, 2007.
GEO codes so be sure to research individual market segments carefully.
Disclaimer: All information from Sunshine MLS. Accuracy is deemed correct but not warranted.
CLOSED SALES
• Closed units in July were up 33% over July 2007 and the highest July since July 2005.
• Year-to-date closed units up 10% over same period 2007. Volume down 12%.
• Median sales price year-to-date July is down 17% from July 2007. Average sales price down 19%.
• Year-to-date sales under $500,000 represent 70% of all closed sales and are the only price segment showing
an increase over prior year.
PENDED SALES
• July pended sales were up 65% over July 2007. Naples up 72% and Bonita / Estero up 40%.
• Cumulative pended sales for the first 7 months of 2008 are up 16% over prior year.
• Pended sales over $2 million have exceeded same month, prior year for May, June and July, indicating some
strengthening in this market segment.
LISTINGS
• Number of new listings taken in July is less than 2% greater than July 2007.
• Active listing inventory on August 1, 2008 stands at 13,274 in the Naples, Bonita, Estero combined markets
(6348 condominiums and 6926 single family homes). This represents a 4% decline from August 1, 2007.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
MARKET REVIEW
Naples, Bonita and Estero, Florida real estate board statistics
June 30, 2008
LISTINGS TAKEN / CLOSED SALES COMPARISON
Closings as a percentage of new listings taken peaked in April 2005, when closings reached 83% of new listings. Another way of saying this is that for ever 1.2 listings taken, a sale occurred. This was the period during which inventories decreased, demand was greatest, and prices soared. In May 2005 a consistent decline in this ratio began, ultimately reaching its lowest point in January 2007, when closings were only 10% of new listings taken or one sale for every 10 new listings. These lower percentages continued throughout 2007 and into the first two months of 2008. In April 2008, this percentage reached 30%, its highest in 28 months, and has continued near this level or higher during May and June. This represents one sale for ever 3 listings, a significant improvement. Closings are the best indicator that inventories may be decreasing, assuming the number of new listings continues to stabilize and return to more historic norms. This is validated by the fact that inventory currently stands at approximately a four year supply overall, contrasted to a five year supply at this time a year ago. While we still have some areas that will take several years, and/or significant price reductions to normalize, we are also seeing a growing number returning to a very balanced supply/demand status. The following neighborhoods are examples of areas with a one year, or less, product supply: Aqualane Shores, Bonita Bay, The Brooks, and Pelican Bay single family homes and Bay Colony Shores condominiums. Others are close and rapidly approaching a balanced market.
LISTINGS TAKEN / PENDED SALES COMPARISON
Pended sales as a percentage of listings taken reached 104% in February 2005; an all-time high. They remained close to this level until July 2005 when a decline began which reached its lowest point (17%) in October 2007. This represents about one sale for every 6 new listings taken. Since then, these percentages have been trending upward, reaching their highest in April 2008 when there was one pended sale for every two new listings. While the past two months have pulled back slightly from this high, the year-to-date ratio is approximately one sale for every 3 new listings (31%), representing improvement over the same period prior year, as well as significant improvement from the record low in October.
While not all pended sales close, they are the leading indicator of market shifts. By the time a closing is recorded, usually a two to three month lag period, actual market changes are well underway.
UNITS / VOLUME COMPARISON
The number of closed units year-to-date June 30, 2008 is up 6% over the same period 2007. Year over prior year comparison in June 2007 was still showing a 13% decline over 2006. While dollar volume of closed sales continues to lag the same period 2007, sales under $250,000 are actually up in both units and volume. This is the only price segment to show an increase in volume. The good news here is that much of the excess inventory is in this price range, and absorption in this category will significantly impact overall supply in the market. The 20% year to date decrease in sales over $2 million is the main reason for volume decreases.
AVERAGE SALES PRICE / MEDIAN PRICE COMPARISON
Average sales price year to date June 2008 is down 19% compared to this period 2007. Median sales price is down 16%. The lower average sales price, attributable to the large number of closed sales below $500,000, still represents a 19% increase over the same period 2004. It is always a good idea to check average prices by neighborhood. Although there have been decreases in all segments, some specific areas may or may not mirror overall market performance.
CONCLUSIONS
Two of the key indicators of market change are the Listings Taken / Closed Sales Comparison and the Listings Taken / Pended Sales Comparison. Both of these have significantly improved over the year to date June 2007 period, indicating that the market recovery is underway, although still somewhat sluggish. The remaining two indicators which we monitor, the Units / Volume Comparison and Average Sales Price / Median Sales Price Comparison are mixed. The fact that units are up while volume is down definitely substantiates that more buyers have returned to the market and are actually making buying decisions and closing on properties. The point at which volume shifts positively will be determined by the by the pace at which the over $2 million properties begin to move in greater numbers. While it is still too early to call the timing, both May and June 2008 have shown pended sales increases over prior year in this category. That leaves one remaining category – Average Sales Price / Median Sales Price Comparison. It is likely that we will continue to see declining averages over the coming months as lower priced inventory continues to be absorbed. However, due to stabilizing conditions in the markets mentioned earlier in this report, as well as others approaching stabilization, some areas may actually begin to see price increases again within the short term. At the very least, one should not expect to see dramatic declines from current levels in these areas.
Expect to see increased inventories in certain segments as more foreclosed properties come on the market. These could show a shorter listing period that others due to the fact that banks do not want to be in the business of owning residential real estate, so will be motivated to get them sold quickly.
A final word on the four year supply of properties currently on the market. Remember the four year estimate assumes that absorption rates will remain at the same level as they have in the past year; probably the slowest in the history of the area. If the pace of sales increases, as it has already done in some areas, the absorption will be much faster. The problem is no one can accurately know this until it is too late. Best advice is still that if you are in the market to buy for personal use or long term investment, this is a great time to buy. If you are looking for the “quick flip”, this is probably not the time!
Thursday, May 29, 2008
House Market Seems to Stabilize in Southwest Fla.
House Market Seems to Stabilize in Southwest Fla.
by St. Petersburg Times
Photo: iStockAfter free falling for more than two years, west Florida homes sales appear to be bottoming out.
April's housing activity presented a cautiously optimistic picture: Sales are stabilizing as home sellers cut prices to entice buyers. Here's some evidence:
• Sales were up from April 2007 to April 2008 in some of the worst hit markets south of the Tampa Bay area. Sarasota, Punta Gorda and Fort Myers-Cape Coral all reported rising sales vs. a year earlier.
• Tampa Bay area single-family home sales slipped 8 percent year to year, but Hillsborough and Citrus counties both reported little or no decline. Although Pinellas County Realtors said sales were down 10.7 percent, condo sales were higher than they've been since June 2007.
• Pending sales, homes under contract waiting to close, were up in April in every county in the Tampa Bay area compared to a year earlier.
"Sales are stabilizing, but they're stabilizing at a level that's still low," University of Florida economist David Denslow said after Friday's release by the Florida Association of Realtors. "But that's better news than having sales continue to plunge."
Higher sales correlated with lower prices. Where prices dropped the most, like Fort Myers, sales spiked. Business in Fort Myers surged 41 percent in April. The Tampa region's median home price is $176,000, 26 percent below the high mark of $239,300 in June 2006.
"Price, price, price is what sells a house. Period," said Nikki Ubaldini, a Palm Harbor real estate broker affiliated with Keller Williams Realty. "Nine of 10 people just want to know they're paying a fair price."
Denslow assumes home prices won't flatten statewide until 2009. And he expects no sustained home price rise until 2011, when the first batch of baby boomers crosses the age of 65.
April sales in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties totalled 2,087. That's 8 percent below April 2007's total of 2,257. Purchases approximated those of April 1999.
by St. Petersburg Times
Photo: iStockAfter free falling for more than two years, west Florida homes sales appear to be bottoming out.
April's housing activity presented a cautiously optimistic picture: Sales are stabilizing as home sellers cut prices to entice buyers. Here's some evidence:
• Sales were up from April 2007 to April 2008 in some of the worst hit markets south of the Tampa Bay area. Sarasota, Punta Gorda and Fort Myers-Cape Coral all reported rising sales vs. a year earlier.
• Tampa Bay area single-family home sales slipped 8 percent year to year, but Hillsborough and Citrus counties both reported little or no decline. Although Pinellas County Realtors said sales were down 10.7 percent, condo sales were higher than they've been since June 2007.
• Pending sales, homes under contract waiting to close, were up in April in every county in the Tampa Bay area compared to a year earlier.
"Sales are stabilizing, but they're stabilizing at a level that's still low," University of Florida economist David Denslow said after Friday's release by the Florida Association of Realtors. "But that's better news than having sales continue to plunge."
Higher sales correlated with lower prices. Where prices dropped the most, like Fort Myers, sales spiked. Business in Fort Myers surged 41 percent in April. The Tampa region's median home price is $176,000, 26 percent below the high mark of $239,300 in June 2006.
"Price, price, price is what sells a house. Period," said Nikki Ubaldini, a Palm Harbor real estate broker affiliated with Keller Williams Realty. "Nine of 10 people just want to know they're paying a fair price."
Denslow assumes home prices won't flatten statewide until 2009. And he expects no sustained home price rise until 2011, when the first batch of baby boomers crosses the age of 65.
April sales in Pinellas, Pasco, Hillsborough and Hernando counties totalled 2,087. That's 8 percent below April 2007's total of 2,257. Purchases approximated those of April 1999.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Naples-area home sales increase in April
Lower prices have lured back buyers, who are feeling now is the time to buy.
In April, Realtors in the Naples area had their busiest month of the year.
Overall, home sales rose 6 percent to 472, compared to 445 last year, according to a monthly report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR).
Meanwhile, pending home sales increased 25 percent to 616, from 494 a year ago.
The report tracks home sales in Collier County, excluding Marco Island.
"I think we’ve hit bottom in Naples and that comes from the economists who really study this," said Arlene Carozza, a Realtor and NABOR’s president.
In an interview with Mad Money host Jim Cramer on CNBC earlier this week, Bob Toll, CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers, described the west coast of Florida as its "one ray of hope."
"Naples is back. It’s amazing," he said, adding that his company is now out of spec inventory here and its prices are starting to rise in this market.
According to the NABOR statistics, the median price for all homes in the Naples area dropped more than 23 percent last month to $300,000, from $390,000 a year ago.
Joe Ballarino, president of Amerivest Realty in Naples, said a spike in foreclosures and short sales _ sales made for less than the bank is owed _ have driven prices down faster in this market.
In April, the median price dropped to $258,000 for condos, and to $400,000 for single-family homes.
"You have people walking away from properties and banks that just want to get their loan values and are taking less than what they are owed on the property," Ballarino said.
In April, Collier County had 1,043 foreclosure-related filings, up almost 800 percent from a year ago and nearly 40 percent from March, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. Those filings include notification of pending lawsuits, default notices, and bank repossessions.
The trend is expected to continue.
In April, Collier Clerk of Courts Dwight Brock recorded 641 new foreclosure filings.
Buyers haven’t seen such good deals on homes in four to six years, and prices still are adjusting, Ballarino said.
"Those bottoms will be found neighborhood by neighborhood," Ballarino said.
In his own research, he found pending sales in the Naples and Bonita Springs markets in April reached their highest levels since August 2005. In the two markets, there were 853 last month, up from 652 a year ago _ a 30 percent increase.
Homes priced at less than $300,000 are still seeing the most activity. Sales in this range increased 62 percent to 238, from 147 a year ago.
Sales for single-family homes under $300,000 increased 177 percent to 72, from 26 a year ago.
Meanwhile, the pendings grew 337 percent to 131, from 30 a year ago.
Another 166 condos sold for less than $300,000, up from 121 a year ago, in April, and pending sales grew to 163, up from 125 last year.
Other parts of the market are starting to see more activity, too. Pending sales for all homes in the $300,000-to-$500,000 range increased 18 percent.
While overall sales were up in April, condo sales declined 1 percent. There were 270 sales, versus 273 in the same month last year.
However, pending condo sales increased 6 percent to 291 last month, from 275 a year ago.
"I think buyers are starting to realize that the sellers’ pricing is really not going to go down too much more. So the buyers are just starting to come off the sidelines," said Russ Weyer, a senior associate for Orlando-based economic consultant Fishkind & Associates.
By neighborhood, North Naples saw the most sales at 144 last month. The Naples beach area came in second with 133.
Some think the passing of Amendment 1 is starting to help spur sales in Southwest Florida. The amendment, passed by voters in January and now in effect, cut property taxes an average of $240 a year for primary homeowners by doubling the homestead exemption. It also allows residents to take or "port" their Save Our Homes tax protection with them when they move anywhere in Florida and puts a 10 percent cap on tax assessments for non-homestead properties.
"I think some of the activity is due to that. There is no doubt. But there is no way to measure it," Ballarino said.
International buyers also are showing more interest in Southwest Florida because their money is worth so much more against a weak dollar.
Broker Michael Hughes at Downing-Frye Realty Inc. in Naples, said his agents wrote 300 contracts in April, up from 188 in 2007 and 127 in 2006. And those contracts weren’t just for homes under $300,000, which he said was encouraging.
He said homes in the $300,000 to $500,000 range "started to show some pretty big improvement."
"I think a lot of people realize that right now the financing is very reasonable, and yet that financing can change," Hughes said.
Showings still are pretty strong, though the busy winter season has come to an end, he said. He expects May to be another good month.
"The rest of the year remains to be seen. But it’s nice to see us starting to string some nice months in a row," Hughes said.
This year his agents have written 870 contracts, which he describes as "very good for these challenging times."
While activity is up and signs are pointing to a better market, the real estate recovery in Southwest Florida won’t be immediate, with so many homes still on the market, said Weyer of Fishkind & Associates.
"We will probably be there a little while at the bottom before things really start to turn," he said.
In April, Realtors in the Naples area had their busiest month of the year.
Overall, home sales rose 6 percent to 472, compared to 445 last year, according to a monthly report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR).
Meanwhile, pending home sales increased 25 percent to 616, from 494 a year ago.
The report tracks home sales in Collier County, excluding Marco Island.
"I think we’ve hit bottom in Naples and that comes from the economists who really study this," said Arlene Carozza, a Realtor and NABOR’s president.
In an interview with Mad Money host Jim Cramer on CNBC earlier this week, Bob Toll, CEO of homebuilder Toll Brothers, described the west coast of Florida as its "one ray of hope."
"Naples is back. It’s amazing," he said, adding that his company is now out of spec inventory here and its prices are starting to rise in this market.
According to the NABOR statistics, the median price for all homes in the Naples area dropped more than 23 percent last month to $300,000, from $390,000 a year ago.
Joe Ballarino, president of Amerivest Realty in Naples, said a spike in foreclosures and short sales _ sales made for less than the bank is owed _ have driven prices down faster in this market.
In April, the median price dropped to $258,000 for condos, and to $400,000 for single-family homes.
"You have people walking away from properties and banks that just want to get their loan values and are taking less than what they are owed on the property," Ballarino said.
In April, Collier County had 1,043 foreclosure-related filings, up almost 800 percent from a year ago and nearly 40 percent from March, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. Those filings include notification of pending lawsuits, default notices, and bank repossessions.
The trend is expected to continue.
In April, Collier Clerk of Courts Dwight Brock recorded 641 new foreclosure filings.
Buyers haven’t seen such good deals on homes in four to six years, and prices still are adjusting, Ballarino said.
"Those bottoms will be found neighborhood by neighborhood," Ballarino said.
In his own research, he found pending sales in the Naples and Bonita Springs markets in April reached their highest levels since August 2005. In the two markets, there were 853 last month, up from 652 a year ago _ a 30 percent increase.
Homes priced at less than $300,000 are still seeing the most activity. Sales in this range increased 62 percent to 238, from 147 a year ago.
Sales for single-family homes under $300,000 increased 177 percent to 72, from 26 a year ago.
Meanwhile, the pendings grew 337 percent to 131, from 30 a year ago.
Another 166 condos sold for less than $300,000, up from 121 a year ago, in April, and pending sales grew to 163, up from 125 last year.
Other parts of the market are starting to see more activity, too. Pending sales for all homes in the $300,000-to-$500,000 range increased 18 percent.
While overall sales were up in April, condo sales declined 1 percent. There were 270 sales, versus 273 in the same month last year.
However, pending condo sales increased 6 percent to 291 last month, from 275 a year ago.
"I think buyers are starting to realize that the sellers’ pricing is really not going to go down too much more. So the buyers are just starting to come off the sidelines," said Russ Weyer, a senior associate for Orlando-based economic consultant Fishkind & Associates.
By neighborhood, North Naples saw the most sales at 144 last month. The Naples beach area came in second with 133.
Some think the passing of Amendment 1 is starting to help spur sales in Southwest Florida. The amendment, passed by voters in January and now in effect, cut property taxes an average of $240 a year for primary homeowners by doubling the homestead exemption. It also allows residents to take or "port" their Save Our Homes tax protection with them when they move anywhere in Florida and puts a 10 percent cap on tax assessments for non-homestead properties.
"I think some of the activity is due to that. There is no doubt. But there is no way to measure it," Ballarino said.
International buyers also are showing more interest in Southwest Florida because their money is worth so much more against a weak dollar.
Broker Michael Hughes at Downing-Frye Realty Inc. in Naples, said his agents wrote 300 contracts in April, up from 188 in 2007 and 127 in 2006. And those contracts weren’t just for homes under $300,000, which he said was encouraging.
He said homes in the $300,000 to $500,000 range "started to show some pretty big improvement."
"I think a lot of people realize that right now the financing is very reasonable, and yet that financing can change," Hughes said.
Showings still are pretty strong, though the busy winter season has come to an end, he said. He expects May to be another good month.
"The rest of the year remains to be seen. But it’s nice to see us starting to string some nice months in a row," Hughes said.
This year his agents have written 870 contracts, which he describes as "very good for these challenging times."
While activity is up and signs are pointing to a better market, the real estate recovery in Southwest Florida won’t be immediate, with so many homes still on the market, said Weyer of Fishkind & Associates.
"We will probably be there a little while at the bottom before things really start to turn," he said.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Hold please.....
Who out there works for a company or organization that allows it's customers to remain on hold for eternity? Who is at the other end of these calls? I don't get it. I am currently on hold with a bank out of Texas and the timer on my phone has just gone past 20 minutes. No one has come back on the line to let me know there wasn't a thermonuclear explosion in Irving, Texas- so I am assuming that short of a cataclysmic situation, I am just being ignored. Ironically, before you are put on hold the recording says that their first priority is customer service and your call will be answered as soon as possible. if any of you reading this work in a customer service position....PICK UP THE PHONE!!!
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
John R. Wood Realtors 50th Anniversary
The link below is from a recent article in the Naples Daily News highlighting John R. Wood and the real estate brokerage he founded 50 years ago. I am proudly associated with the company as an agent and thought I would pass this along. Happy reading!
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Another installment from Joe Spelczek...
Here is a typical Naples magazine that features an average woman on a 56 foot yacht wearing a matronly bathing suit. The publication promotes the simplicity and understatement of the Naples lifestyle by offering helpful tips like where to have your Bentley Continental Flying Spur serviced or finding a good family plastic surgeon. A little local publication for the run of the mill folks who manage to scratch out a living here at the tip of Southwest Florida. This is the second edition and while it is an eye catcher, I couldn't help but notice that right next to this girl's average, pale, unsexy stomach...just to the left ( hard to see on this photo) is a headline that reads "tropical tastes waterfront dinning". We drive Bentley's but we can't spell. A preview for the upcoming edition: "Enjoy our wite, sandy beeches and expeeriunce the Naples lifestile...." Maybe as the spelling gets worse the models get better, we'll see next month.Saturday, March 1, 2008
Coffee Schmoffee.....
Thanks to Starbucks, coffee has gone from a common beverage to a socially important accessory. The “Starbuckian” masses cannot walk, talk, work, raise a family or socialize without a paper cup full of latte mocha half decaf skim in their hand. Toting around a cup of coffee has become an accouterment- like wearing a watch- and it is a signal to all of the Starbuckian culture that you are one of the tribe – it is a mark of your hipness, being plugged in, cooler than the average schmo. You’re an achiever and coffee is your fuel as you bleat about big oil companies charging you $3.00 a gallon to fill up your beemer, yet you have no problem spending $5.50 for a 12 ounce cup of social status. People are like sheep as they ingest whatever Madison Avenue tells them is cool, youthful and leading edge. Even the word “coffee” has been replaced with the word Starbucks. “ Do you wanna get some Starbucks?” “I cannot function in the morning without my Starbucks.” Were we all that caffeine deprived 20 years ago? I used to function fine without my “Starbucks”; why is it in the last few years people cannot get through their day without shelling out five dead presidents for a cup of joe?
The irony is that as much as coffee can be a social lubricant, most of the bean-fiends are recluses. The true Starbucks Rats hunker down in the cafes behind their laptops while strapped into their Ipods and Blackberrys and stare into their computer screens engaging in on-line chats all while sitting in a huge room of actual living, breathing people who want nothing more than to see and be seen. Why go through the effort to lug all that equipment from your home, spend half a day’s salary on a cup of coffee, just to cocoon yourself from the outside world while sitting in a room full of people? It seems like a tremendous waste of energy. It’s like driving a Hummer to Golds Gym – a remarkable squandering of energy, time and money. Go outside and run around the block 10 times and it’ll save you commute time, gas, and money otherwise spent on a gym membership- and would keep a hugely stupid and irresponsible car off the road.
But we've got to have our stuff – non-verbal extensions of our personalities that tells people who we are and where we fit into the social stratum. Sitting in a Starbucks, ball cap, day’s growth of beard, electronics plugged into nearly every orifice and wired on overpriced coffee – 20 years ago, that guy would probably be arrested. Nowadays, that guy is in every city and every town - a prototypical “Starbuckian” defining “cool” right down to his Abercrombie and Fitch Cargo shorts. It is a uniform, no doubt, but they would never admit it. Starbucks - the accessory to the crime of blind social compliance.
I’m so tired of all of this…maybe I’ll run down to Starbucks and get me a little pick me up. What’s with this bottled water craze………?
The irony is that as much as coffee can be a social lubricant, most of the bean-fiends are recluses. The true Starbucks Rats hunker down in the cafes behind their laptops while strapped into their Ipods and Blackberrys and stare into their computer screens engaging in on-line chats all while sitting in a huge room of actual living, breathing people who want nothing more than to see and be seen. Why go through the effort to lug all that equipment from your home, spend half a day’s salary on a cup of coffee, just to cocoon yourself from the outside world while sitting in a room full of people? It seems like a tremendous waste of energy. It’s like driving a Hummer to Golds Gym – a remarkable squandering of energy, time and money. Go outside and run around the block 10 times and it’ll save you commute time, gas, and money otherwise spent on a gym membership- and would keep a hugely stupid and irresponsible car off the road.
But we've got to have our stuff – non-verbal extensions of our personalities that tells people who we are and where we fit into the social stratum. Sitting in a Starbucks, ball cap, day’s growth of beard, electronics plugged into nearly every orifice and wired on overpriced coffee – 20 years ago, that guy would probably be arrested. Nowadays, that guy is in every city and every town - a prototypical “Starbuckian” defining “cool” right down to his Abercrombie and Fitch Cargo shorts. It is a uniform, no doubt, but they would never admit it. Starbucks - the accessory to the crime of blind social compliance.
I’m so tired of all of this…maybe I’ll run down to Starbucks and get me a little pick me up. What’s with this bottled water craze………?
Friday, February 29, 2008
The back yard..Naples, Florida
Found this picture among my saved files. Thought I would send it along to give you a sense of what I have to deal with down here. Cruel and unusual punishment. My "Trevian" helmet is behind the front Palm Tree but trust me, I usually always have it on at the beach. It's a good look and let's people know I mean business.
A Few New Additions!
I added a few new elements today - see picture of Trevian! Some time ago I emailed my NTE class about the origin of the name New Trier, which dated back a couple of centuries to Trier, Germany. I can't remember everything about my research but somehow our little corner of Winnetka, Illinois adopted the name and came up with a "Trevian"- whatever that is. I also added a cartoon which I have always liked about a tortoise and a snail.
I got two responses from classmates who now reside in Texas -remember the Alamo - I think the Trevians were involved in that skirmish. Always good to hear from classmates - 28 years after grad. day.
Looking forward to more responses, and as I get the hang of things I will add/delete and post.
I got two responses from classmates who now reside in Texas -remember the Alamo - I think the Trevians were involved in that skirmish. Always good to hear from classmates - 28 years after grad. day.
Looking forward to more responses, and as I get the hang of things I will add/delete and post.
Welcome to my BLOG! For those that know me already, writing is something I enjoy and I am looking forward to posting my comments, thoughts and odd-takes on civilization whether those comments are about residential real estate or some random vibe I happen to be on. The whole point of blogging is to create a place where people come to everyday and can share thoughts, so I will do my best to keep it fresh so that you will want to check in daily and drop me a comment or two.
I tend not to offend in my writing. I generally keep a neutral position on hot button issues like politics and religion. But, I do tend to make observations about our everyday behaviors and current events, however, with my own particular slant. So, if for example I am especially annoyed with Lance Armstrong Wanna-be cycling clubs because they take up the whole roadway thinking that they are actually riding in the Tour de France rather than down Pelican Bay Boulevard, then I will say something about it. Or, the fact that a Starbucks coffee cup has become a necessary cultural accessory to be worn like clothing and to signal your "hipness" might become a whole topic someday on a blog posting. I might delve into the local real estate market conditions and cite some examples for why we are at a bottom contrary to the nay-sayers out there. If you don't like dogs then don't read these blogs! I will be posting stories about Ginger whether you like it or not!
So, starting tomorrow(or maybe later today) I am going to begin getting the creative juices flowing and will pour out my mind onto keyboard and screen. I look forward to hearing from you and please share this with whomever you feel would be interested!
I tend not to offend in my writing. I generally keep a neutral position on hot button issues like politics and religion. But, I do tend to make observations about our everyday behaviors and current events, however, with my own particular slant. So, if for example I am especially annoyed with Lance Armstrong Wanna-be cycling clubs because they take up the whole roadway thinking that they are actually riding in the Tour de France rather than down Pelican Bay Boulevard, then I will say something about it. Or, the fact that a Starbucks coffee cup has become a necessary cultural accessory to be worn like clothing and to signal your "hipness" might become a whole topic someday on a blog posting. I might delve into the local real estate market conditions and cite some examples for why we are at a bottom contrary to the nay-sayers out there. If you don't like dogs then don't read these blogs! I will be posting stories about Ginger whether you like it or not!
So, starting tomorrow(or maybe later today) I am going to begin getting the creative juices flowing and will pour out my mind onto keyboard and screen. I look forward to hearing from you and please share this with whomever you feel would be interested!
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